But the conventional threat has never disappeared—and continues to evolve.
The war in Ukraine, tensions between Russia and Europe, and the ongoing conflict in Israel/Gaza shape the geopolitical landscape every day. These conflicts rightly attract significant attention and are reshaping Europe’s security architecture.
Meanwhile, another threat has continued to grow quietly and systematically:
👉 Jihadist networks, ISIS structures and radical splinter groups operating across the Middle East, Afghanistan and large parts of Africa.
Recent OSINT indicators point to a clear trend:
• ISIS in Iraq and Syria is once again employing conventional insurgency tactics, including IEDs, targeted attacks and the destabilisation of local structures.
• ISKP in Afghanistan is emerging as a key actor in externally directed operations, including plots targeting Europe.
• Central Asian networks increasingly serve as logistical and operational bridges to the EU.
• Gaza-related propaganda is being actively used to recruit and radicalise young people in Europe.
• European security services are again seeing an increase in both foiled and completed low-tech attacks carried out by individuals or small cells.
The current focus on hybrid threats is essential. Drones, cyberattacks, sabotage, energy disputes and information warfare shape everyday realities in and around Europe.
Yet this must not lead us to underestimate threats originating in the Middle East. These actors have adapted and modernised in recent years, developing largely under the radar while international attention has been focused elsewhere.
The reality is clear:
We live in a multidimensional security landscape in which these threats reinforce one another. Hybrid warfare at our borders exists alongside jihadist networks seeking new methods, new routes and new targets.
For everyone working in security, defence, close protection, HEAT and crisis management, this means our attention must remain broad, flexible and forward-looking.
The Middle East never stopped being dangerous. Often, we simply stopped paying as much attention.
Stay aware. Stay adaptive. Stay ahead.
